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1 The Social and Economic Impact of Illiteracy: Analytical Model and Pilot Study 2 The Social and Economic Impact of Illiteracy: Analytical Model and Pilot Study This work is part of the ECLAC-UNESCO/OREALC project “Análisis de las consecuencias sociales y eco- nómicas del analfabetismo (UNE/08/001)”, coordinated by Rodrigo Martínez and Andrés Fernández, of the Social Development Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), and the Regional Burea
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  1 The Social and Economic Impact of Illiteracy: Analytical Model and Pilot Study  2 The Social and Economic Impact of Illiteracy: Analytical Model and Pilot Study This work is part of the ECLAC-UNESCO/OREALC project “Análisis de las consecuencias sociales y eco-nómicas del analfabetismo (UNE/08/001)”, coordinated by Rodrigo Martínez and Andrés Fernández, of the Social Development Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), and the Regional Bureau of Education for Latin America and the Caribbean (OREALC/UNESCO Santiago).The document was written with the collaboration of ECLAC consultants Amalia Palma, Andrés Espe- jo and Pilar Romaguera, as well as Marcelo Henríquez, of the School of Industrial Engineering of the University of Chile, and UNESCO consultant Sergio Martinic, of the School of Education of the Catholic University of Chile. The views expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal editing, are those of the authors and do not necessarily reect the views of the Organizations.This document is a translation of the srcinal project document.This document is not an ofcial CEPAL translation. Translation by OREALC/UNESCO Santiago 2010. This publication can be downloaded at www.unesco.org/santiago OREALC/2010/PI/H/12Copyright © United Nations, December 2010. All rights reserved.  3 The Social and Economic Impact of Illiteracy: Analytical Model and Pilot Study Executive Summary. .............................................................................................................................................................................................................5Introduction ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................15I. Historical Background.................................................................................................................................................................................................17 1. Evolution of the Concept of Illiteracy. .................................................................................................................................................17 2. Literacy: Approaches in a Knowledge Society ................................................................................................................................18 3. Measuring Illiteracy .......................................................................................................................................................................................19 4. The Impact of Literacy ..................................................................................................................................................................................21II. Illiteracy in Latin America and the Caribbean ..............................................................................................................................................23 1. Educational Coverage and Achievements .......................................................................................................................................23 2. Quality and Competencies .......................................................................................................................................................................26 2.1 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) ..........................................................................................27 2.2 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) ..........................................................................28 2.3 International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS) ............................................................................................................................29 2.4 UNESCO Regional Research .........................................................................................................................................................30III. Conceptual framework ............................................................................................................................................................................................35 1. Illiteracy, Vulnerability and Social Insertion .....................................................................................................................................35 2. Human Capital Theory and Literacy ....................................................................................................................................................37 3. Illiteracy, Education and the Labour Market ...................................................................................................................................39 4. Education as a Determinant of Economic Growth ....................................................................................................................39 5. The Consequences of Illiteracy ..............................................................................................................................................................42 5.1 Illiteracy and the Life Cycle ............................................................................................................................................................42 5.2 Social Consequences of Illiteracy ..............................................................................................................................................43 5.3 Tree of Consequences ......................................................................................................................................................................47IV. Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................................................................49 1. Universe of the Study .................................................................................................................................................................................49 2. Analytical Approach ....................................................................................................................................................................................49 3. Variables and Indicators ............................................................................................................................................................................49 3.1 Illiteracy ...................................................................................................................................................................................................50 3.2 The Consequences of Illiteracy ...................................................................................................................................................50V. Pilot Study Results ......................................................................................................................................................................................................59 1. Case Studies .....................................................................................................................................................................................................59 2. Preliminary Results ......................................................................................................................................................................................60 2.1 Illiteracy and Employment ...........................................................................................................................................................60 2.2 Quality of Employment ..................................................................................................................................................................62 2.3 Illiteracy, Schooling, Age and Income ......................................................................................................................................65 2.4 The Costs of Illiteracy .......................................................................................................................................................................65VI. Conclusions .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................71  Table of Contents  4 The Social and Economic Impact of Illiteracy: Analytical Model and Pilot Study Bibliography ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................73Tables1 Probability of Primary School Completion as of 2015 ..............................................................................................................................252 National Education Evaluation Systems in Latin America and the Caribbean ..........................................................................313 Distribution of Students by Performance Level ..........................................................................................................................................324 Students Below Performance Level I .................................................................................................................................................................335 Economic Returns of Education ...........................................................................................................................................................................416 Economic Effects of Education .............................................................................................................................................................................41 7 Access to Pension System by Country ..............................................................................................................................................................538 Employment Formality Indicators ......................................................................................................................................................................549 Total Loss of Labour Income, by Type of Illiteracy – Cross-sectional Approach, 2006 ............................................................6810 Projected Diminished Labour Income, by Type of Illiteracy – Longitudinal Approach, 2006-2050 ...............................69 Figures1 Complete Illiteracy Among Adults (Aged 15 and Older) and Young People (Aged 15 to 24), 2007 ...................................232 Persons Aged 15 to 29 Who Have Not Completed Primary Education ...........................................................................................243 Science Scores by Level .............................................................................................................................................................................................284 Science Achievement Levels, TIMSS 2003 ......................................................................................................................................................285 Level 1 Population in Participating Countries, 2003 ..................................................................................................................................296 Latin America: Average Years of School of Young People Aged 20 to 24 and Their Parents, 1999 ...................................367 The Concept of Human Capital: Innate and Acquired ............................................................................................................................388 Costs of Illiteracy ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................479 Illiterate Population in Pilot Study Countries, By Type of Illiteracy (Complete and Functional), 2006 .........................6010 Open Unemployment Rate of Population Aged 15 to 64 ......................................................................................................................6011 Employment Rate of Population Aged 15 to 64 ...........................................................................................................................................6112 Unemployment Rate of Population Aged 15 to 64 with Up to Four Years of Schooling, According to Knowledge of Reading and Writing .............................................................................................................................................................6113 Employed Persons in the Population Aged 15 to 64 Who Have an Employment Contract, by Years of Schooling .........6214 Employed Persons in the Population Aged 15 to 64 Who Have an Employment Contract, According to Knowledge of Reading and Writing ............................................................................................................................................................6215 Wage Workers in the Population Aged 15 to 64 Who Have an Employment Contract, by Years of Schooling ..........6316 Wage Workers with Employment Contracts Who Contribute to the Pension System, by Years of Schooling ........6417 Formal Employment in the Working Population Aged 15 to 64, by Years of Schooling ........................................................6418 Income Differentials by Level of Schooling, 2006 .....................................................................................................................................6619 Per Capita Loss of Labour Income by Type of Illiteracy – Cross-sectional Approach, 2006 .................................................67
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