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Bulgarian Railway Company – SWOT Analysis and methodics for determination of serial failures at new aquired roling stock Dimitar Mihaylov Faculty of International economics and administration Varna Free University Varna, Bulgaria dimitar_mihailov@abv.bg Abstract — SWOT analysis gives the rights steps for the company development. Methodic for determination of subsistence of serial error at train systems gives option for performance measure and quality of new rolling stock
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  Bulgarian Railway Company  –   SWOT Analysis and methodics for determination of serial failures at new aquired roling stock  Dimitar Mihaylov Faculty of International economics and administration Varna Free University Varna, Bulgaria dimitar_mihailov@abv.bg  Abstract  —   SWOT analysis gives the rights steps for the company development. Methodic for determination of subsistence of serial error at train systems gives option for performance measure and quality of new rolling stock Keywords: SWOT,system failure, methodics, serial error  I.   I  NTRODUCTION   Investments at new railroad allow increase of the speed of movement of passengers and cargo. Effectiveness of  processing cargo volume, compared with other type of transport and relation tons/price for kilometer give extreme advantage for railway transfer, in country with size of Bulgaria. Unfortunately, there is a trend for separation of country by axle  –   capital Sofia  –   all other cities. Economic crisis and unemployment move people in active age to look for new  possibilities. It is recommends financial independence of the communities and increasing of rights about economic and social politics, according Institute for market economics. [17] Practically there is a railway till all regional centers in the country. This determines possibility for cheap transport for  people and goods for manufacturing at determine regions. If there is no infrastructure, based on purposeful politics any region in the country can be developed. Modern rolling stocks consume rapidly less energy for carriage of passenger/good, compared with other type of transport. In example Velaro ICE3 have energy consumption of 0, 33 l/100 km for one passenger. [1] High level of reliability and low maintenance costs determine return of investment in short period. Combination of good railway and rolling stock can be key factor to form economic advantage  –   low price of the transport service is precondition for low end price of the goods at equal other conditions  –   quality, product characteristics, etc. These collaterally increase competitor capabilities, of the country economic. “We must finish the job, c onnected with speed increase  –   aspect of the quality of offered from us service. One billion will be invested in the infrastructure. After this, project from EU must be winning for investment of 300 million euro for new rolling stock “says CO of directors’  board of holding BDZ Vladimir Vladimirov. [15]  II.   SWOT   A  NALYSIS OF BDZ   “P ASSENGER SERVICE ”   Realization of the project for delivery and maintenance of new rolling stock in Bulgaria, even based at collected experience is a new decision of transport problem in national scale with codependences of investment intention, chosen  producer and partner for maintenance  –   own from BDZ or transfer of duties to joint venture. Often, because of missing liquid capital, purchasing of the spare parts is a problem and as solution vehicle with problem  become a “donor” to provide others  ones to keep them running. As result, available numbers of trains, permanently reduce. Collateral effects are decrease of shift of movement, reduce of covered destinations, loose of passengers  –   total negative income trend, personal release. Restrictive government policy also contribute to increase debts between firms  providers/partner and BDZ. At SWOT analysis [5, page 15] are comment strong and weak sides of company. At next table I extend a range and map up measure, which execution can lead to stabilization of the company “BDZ –    Passenger Service”  .Tables is based at classic for square   SWOT analysis : Options  –   Threads Strengths  –   Weakness TABLE I. SWOT  ANALYSIS OF THE COMPANY BDZ   “P ASSENGER SERVICE ”   Possible Treats Reduction of time for travel, by increase of acceptable speeds Purchase of new rolling stock - increase of comfort and quality of trip Improvement of connections with other type of transport and develop of combine schema for service at directions Missing of investments for infrastructure improvement and speed increase Transport market liberate appear of new firms for service Increase of competence from automobile transport and improvement of quality of their service Build of highways will lead to increase of buss transport service and use of private cars    S   t  r  o  n  g  s   i   d  e  s  Transport of big passenger quantity and organized groups No action need Organization of study for needed rolling stock Coordination with bus transport to cover places, without railways network Help to Rail network Company for joint venture projects Optimization of train schedule, increase of comfort Creation of strategy for price advantage at equal kilometers, compared with bus transport Optimization of train schedule SECTION 1. Business Management, Consulting, Sales   I N T   E   R   D   I     S     C     I       P       L      I           N      A        R   Y    C   O   N  F    E    R    E     N     C     E EIIC The 2nd Electronic International Interdisciplinary Conference http://www.eiic.cz/  Electronic International Interdisciplinary Conference September, 2. - 6. 2013 - 69 -     Available technical capability and organization for serve to disabled people No action need No action need No action need No action need No action need No action need No action need Price differentiation according market segment and target groups No action need No action need No action need  Ask in front of Government for repair of railroad Creation of strategy for price advantage at equal kilometer s, compared with bus transport Request in front of Government reduction of charge to use railroad for passenger service No action need Sell tickets at railway stations, stops and inside of trains No action need Purchase of tickets wit SMS Sell of tickets via Internet No action need No action need Offer a combine train - bus ticket Reduce of price for car cargo with family trip    W  e  a   k  s   i   d  e  s Unsatisfied condition of railway network - limit of speed Recovery of ICE trains from past Use of rolling stock, adapted for our country No action need Creation of projects based at operational programs of EU Candidate for government subsidy Use of Wi-Fi Internet access at the trains No action need Increase of unused railway stations , reduction of information and decrease possibility to obtain a ticket Coordination of train schedule with movement of people to and back from work No action need No action need  Agreement with employers for group transfer of workers to and back from factories Sell of tickets from cahier inside of train without penalty No action need No action need Old rolling stock, with low level of comfort and low quality service and use a lot of money for maintenance and repair Keep of clean and comfort Use a business class No action need No action need No action need No action need No action need Missing connections with other type of transport, base at asymmetr y transport schema and non rhythmical serve by destinations Optimization of schedule No action need Optimization of schedule No action need No action need No action need No action need III.   S ERIAL DEFECT AND SERIAL ERROR Serial error is that one with persistent quantity, during equal serial tests, experiments or observing. Usually it is defined as limit level with expected value, when failures are accumulated. Serial error has expected value of random variability, with arithmetical meaning. For separate concrete character, she has an average weight balanced value, when weight coefficient is  possibility for appearing of values of the variability. Serial error is also that one, who continue to exist and it cannot be consider, that she is result of the chance, follow some determine mathematical of physic low or model and cannot be compensated even partially trough applying of correction  –   in example failure, which quantity is change proportionally, when common change in observing conditions appear, based at induce of temperature and pressure upon measure device or object, to be measured. Usually, when contract is sign, inside there is no description of what is serial failure, but there is a responsibility, when it is observed. I will consider serial defects in aspect of serial errors. Defect we have, when there is significant deviation from technical request and affect maintainable readiness. Usually  producer gives a warranty for good performance, as percent of  price of the ware for determine period, started after acceptance of the good.  IV.   S TATISTICAL DATA AND METHODIC Research below is based at statistical data at Table 2, for  presence of failure during determine period of time, for specific device, mount on new rolling stock, owned from Bulgarian Railway Company “Passenger service”  Two devices work independently in parallel, at one system from one technical unit  –   50 devices at 25 units. Table below, content type of Device 1 or 2 (equal in design, structure and functions and grouped by units) and sequence of failures from first case till forth. TABLE II. S TATISTIC VIEW OF FAILURE SEQUENCE AT DEVICES DURING OBSERVED PERIOD OF TIME . S.-Nr. Date of first fail/mount of modif. one S.-Nr Date of second fail/mount of modif. one S.-Nr Date of third fail/mount of modif. one S.-Nr Date of fourth fail/mount of modif. one S.-Nr Dev. 1 8 03.08.09 66 Dev. 2 9 03.08.09 78 Dev. 1 1 28.8.2008 47 30.09.08 74 31.08.09 8 31.08.09 9 Dev. 2 2 08.05.09 83 Dev. 1 19 51 54 23.10.2009 8 11.1.2010 75 Dev. 2 20 08.05.09 97 30.07.09 104 Dev. 1 18 10.08.09 49 Dev. 2 16 10.08.09 86 Dev. 1 31 29.12.09 77 Dev. 2 24 29.12.09 87 18.11.10 99 Dev. 1 35 23.4.2008 52 27.10.2010 51 Dev. 2 37 20.06.08 35 19.4.2010 64 20 Dev. 1 40 13.5.2008 114 64 Dev. 2 41 6.6.2008 64 18.12.2009 74 6.8.2010 35 Dev. 1 48 08.10.09 67 Dev. 2 50 29.05.08 19 23.06.08 63 Dev. 1 46 23.04.09 73 30.11.2009 54 Dev. 2 43 01.12.09 48 Dev. 1 47 20.06.08 41 Dev. 2 49 09.05.09 130 25.1.2010 16 20.03.10 100 Dev. 1 104 6.3.2009 84 Dev. 2 54 01.07.08 40 08.08.08 37 SECTION 1. Business Management, Consulting, Sales   I N T   E   R   D   I     S     C     I       P       L      I           N      A        R   Y    C   O   N  F    E    R    E     N     C     E EIIC The 2nd Electronic International Interdisciplinary Conference http://www.eiic.cz/  Electronic International Interdisciplinary Conference September, 2. - 6. 2013 - 70 -  Dev. 1 51 15.07.08 50 Dev. 2 56 22.09.09 70 Dev. 1 66 12.05.09 131 Dev. 2 63 15.7.2008 121 Dev. 1 67 07.08.09 75 27.8.2009 13.01.10 103 Dev. 2 68 07.08.09 46 Dev. 1 84 9.8.2008 19 Dev. 2 76 24.07.09 20 Dev. 1 74 22.7.2008 122 Dev. 2 73 24.10.2008 1 Dev. 1 86 25.05.09 129 Dev. 2 75 30.06.09 102 Dev. 1 79 31.03.10 73 Dev. 2 78 17.6.2009 2 11.01.10 18 Dev. 1 91 08.05.09 97 Dev. 2 70 31.07.09 82 Dev. 1 77 26.09.09 76 Dev. 2 87 26.09.09 91 Dev. 1 103 22.10.09 68 Dev. 2 97 27.11.08 47 19.10.2010 114 Dev. 1 81 06.07.09 94 Dev. 2 101 07.10.09 81 Dev. 1 99 13.11.09 101 Dev. 2 100 13.11.09 56 Dev. 1 102 11.05.09 128 Dev. 2 94 11.05.09 132 Dev. 1 82 40 Dev. 2 83 13.02.09 51 21.06.10 19 Based at the data from table, follow charts were created:Determine of the quantity index for secondary failures: Figure 1. Number of errors, during second defined period, after general modification From the graphic we can see 5 errors for period 10.08.2010  –   18.11.2010. Total number of secondary failures is nine. Determine of the quantity index for primary errors. Figure 2. Number of errors, during first defined period, after general modification Clear from the Graphic 2, we can see groups of errors for  period 01.06.2008  –   18.12.2008  –   modification of device was done, paid from producer. There is another two groups of errors - 18.12.2008  –   06.07.2009 and 07.07.2009  –   22.01.2010. Failures for observed period - 7.According [9, page 214], based on the graphic view, we can be determine possible reasons for unmanageable of the process and be form corrective actions. Reasons for development of the process:    senescent of the devices    tire of workers    change of the quality in raw materials and slugs Corrective actions:    repair or change of devices    change of the workers    specifying of the quality for raw materials and slugs Based at two graphics, we can see middle term of six months with errors (failures) of 5  –   7 devices. Process of error arise is ascending. According standard IEC 60812/2006 [6] - Analysis techniques for system reliability procedures for failure mode and effects analysis  –   point 5.3.5 Determinations of risk acceptance  –   table 3  –   described serial error is frequent and critical. In case of failure of device, the other one take functions of the first with failure  –   all secondary consumer are shut down- train cannot be used with passengers  –   collateral losses are collected. According describe situation when we juxtaposition risk/criticality  –   Table 3 from standard, similar system errors are unwanted. According same standard, p. 5.3.6.2 possibility for arising of error must be 0,004  –   0,006 (for automobile industry). We have value 0, 18. SECTION 1. Business Management, Consulting, Sales   I N T   E   R   D   I     S     C     I       P       L      I           N      A        R   Y    C   O   N  F    E    R    E     N     C     E EIIC The 2nd Electronic International Interdisciplinary Conference http://www.eiic.cz/  Electronic International Interdisciplinary Conference September, 2. - 6. 2013 - 71 -  According standard [7] БДС  27.405/84  –   Reliability of the techniques, rules for determine of the trusted indexes limits for reliability, p. 64, Example 1. 50 devices are tested till 20 th  failure. Remain are repaired for short time, which is not calculated or if it possible are replaced with new ones. Than possibility for flawlessly work have values P  –   0,832 (P high limit =0,885 и  P low limit =0,774). According common theory for availability, we have followed recommendable values of γ  (possibility for reliability during work) γ  = 0, 95 - 0, 99  –   for за  responsible base elements; γ  = 0, 90 - 0, 95 - for not serviceable elements and such, not included in the set of spare elements to machines; γ  = 0, 85 - 0, 90 - for serviceable elements and such in the set of spare elements to machines From facts up, we can see that 10 secondary failures of device, reduce possibility for flawlessly work from “1” to 0, 9 and γ  have level = 0, 91, what is the current value of the flawlessly work of devices in the system of trains. Even high value of possibilities for error (0, 18), the critical level for requested availability is not reached - 0, 85- at current value - 0, 91. Regard facts, system error at devices we did not observe. V.   C ONCLUSIONS  When BDZ EAD will organize a tender for new rolling stock, choose must be based not at offered lower price, but also offered complex maintenance from producer:    Strategically parts delivered with trains  –   bogies,  power and auxiliary converters, wheel sets,  pantographs, windows.    Presence of maintenance team for warranty and repair at depot for service    Total warranty of the trains, components and systems    After warranty service  –   spare parts availability, terms for repairs, prices    Documentation in Bulgarian language    Training of maintenance personal    Diagnostic programs for maintenance, telemetric observe of parameters    Observe of trains, used in other countries, produced from some important tender participants Comfort criteria, class of equipment and safety must be defined before tender. Winner must offer complex service of warranty, maintenance and repair at lower price in long term. In the contract, both sides must determine value, below which, actions can be held or requested. This will enhance trust  between them and define responsibilities and necessary actions  –   in example to include spare devices or parts in initiation pack for delivery. R  EFERENCES   [1]   Siemens AG .Article.(1996 -2013) .[Online] Available: http://www.mobility.siemens.com/mobility/global/en/inter urban-mobility/rail-solutions/high-speed-and-intercity-trains/velaro/Pages/velaro.aspx [2]   T. Kondakov .Article. (2005) .[Online] Available: http://www.jptactis.com/Archives/jpt205/kondakov.htm [3]   Capital Newspaper .Article.(19.12.2012).[Online] Available: http://www.capital.bg/biznes/kompanii/2012/01/19/1748845_bdj_shte_iska_po-maluk_zaem_ot_svetovnata_banka/ [4]   Railway Administration Executive Agency. Article. (2007) .[Online] Available: http://www.iaja.government.bg/IAJI/wwwFWRAEA.nsf/contents.htm?ReadForm&aa&cat=CD81E87C6FB39ED7002573D300489671- [5]   Balkan leaks. (2010) Plan for restructure and finance stabilization of BDZ for 2010 year, page 15. [Online] Available: https://www.balkanleaks.eu/media/plan_bdz.pdf [6]   International Electro technical Commission. Standard IEC 60812/2006, point 5.3.5. (2006, SE). [Online] Available: http://webstore.iec.ch/preview/info_iec60812%7Bed2.0%7Den_d.pdf [7]   Bulgarian Institute for Standardization. (1984). [ Library].Standard БДС 27.405/84, page 64.   [8]   SEGA Newspaper, Article. (23.10.2009). [Online] Available: http://www.segabg.com/online/new/articlenew.asp?issueid=4350&sectionid=16&id=0000101 [9]   G. Tasev, I .Cenev. (2007) Application for statistical methods in the system for quality management, page.214, [Online] Available: http://www.bamco.bg/bg/docs/praktikaOK_book3.pdf [10]   Siemens Canada .(1996 -2013) [Online] Available: https://www.siemens.ca/web/portal/en/ProductsServices/Pages/cmms_integration.aspx [11]   Project Management Institute, PMBOK Guide and Standards /(2013) [Online] Available: http://www.pmi.org/PMBOK-Guide-and-Standards.aspx [12]   A.H. Maslow, A Theory of Human Motivation (1943).[Online] Available: http://bg.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B0_%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B1%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B5_%D0%BD%D0%B0_%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%BE%D1%83 [13]   Quality management plan and standard (2007) ГОСТ_Р_ИСО_10005 [Online] Available: http://www.gosthelp.ru/gost/gost44192.html [14]   Mark Piscopo(2013), Free Project Management Templates ,Root Case Analysis,.[Online] Available: http://www.projectmanagementdocs.com/templates/root-cause-analysis.html [15]   DIR BG. Article.(06.11.2012) [Online] Available: http://dnes.dir.bg/news/bdz-tzeni-tickets-12144272?nt=10 [16]   European Commission, (2012). Statistical pocket book,  page. 18 [Online] Available: http://ec.europa.eu/transport/facts-fundings/statistics/pocketbook-2012_en.htm [17]   DIR BG. Article,(09.11.2012) [Online] Available: http://banks.dir.bg/2012/11/09/news12375754.html [18]   Bulgarian Railway Company, BDZ, Article,(08.11.2012) [Online] Available: http://bdz.bg/novina.php?id=2208921 SECTION 1. Business Management, Consulting, Sales   I N T   E   R   D   I     S     C     I       P       L      I           N      A        R   Y    C   O   N  F    E    R    E     N     C     E EIIC The 2nd Electronic International Interdisciplinary Conference http://www.eiic.cz/  Electronic International Interdisciplinary Conference September, 2. - 6. 2013 - 72 -
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