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deuc survey 2013-2014
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  Interim Budget 2014-2015Speech ofP. ChidambaramMinister of FinanceFebruary 17, 2014Madam Speaker,INTRODUCTIONI rise to present the Interim Budget for 2014-15.The Current Economic Situation2. As I prepared to write this speech, I found that whether it is a regular Budget for thefull year or an interim Budget, some things remain the same. For example, our goals are thesame and the global context is the same. As I said last year, we are not unaffected by whathappens in the rest of the world. Since September 2008, the state of the world economy hasbeen the most decisive factor impacting the fortunes of every developing country. Hence, it ispertinent to say a few words on the global economy as well as on the global risks.3. World economic growth was 3.9 percent in 2011, 3.1 percent in 2012 and 3.0 percentin 2013. Those numbers tell the story. Among India  s major trading partners, who are alsothe major sources of our foreign capital inflows, the United States has just recovered from along recession; Japan  s economy is responding to the stimulus; the Eurozone, as a whole, isreporting a growth of 0.2 percent; and China  s growth has slowed from 9.3 percent in 2011 to7.7 percent in 2013.4. The Global Risks 2014 report has mapped 31 global risks. Of highest concern are tenrisks that include fiscal crisis, structurally high unemployment or underemployment, incomedisparity, governance failure, food crisis, and political and social instability. The challengesthat we face are common to all emerging economies. 2012 and 2013 were years ofturbulence. Only a handful of countries were able to keep their head above the water, andamong them was India. I shall presently give you an account of how we navigated the Indianeconomy through this turbulent period.Challenges and Goals5. Within days of my return to the Ministry of Finance, I had declared that our objectiveswere fiscal consolidation, price stability, self-sufficiency in food, reviving the growth cycle,enhancing investments, promoting manufacturing, encouraging exports, quickening the paceForeign Trade10. Exports have recovered sharply, and the recovery must be seen in the context ofgrowth of global trade declining from 6.1 percent in 2011 to 2.7 percent in 2013. India  smerchandise exports reached a level of USD 300.4 billion in 2012-13 registering a negativegrowth of 1.8 percent over the previous year. Though 2013-14 began on a pessimistic note, I  am happy to inform the House that the year will end with estimated merchandise exports ofUSD 326 billion, indicating a growth rate of 6.3 percent. However, imports are down, andthis does not augur well for either manufacturing or domestic trade. Our aim must be robustgrowth in both exports and imports, with trade in balance over a period of time.Manufacturing11. Manufacturing is the Achilles   heel of the Indian economy. The deceleration ininvestment in manufacturing is particularly worrying. Consequently, there is no uptick yet inmanufacturing. The National Manufacturing Policy has set the goal of increasing the share ofmanufacturing in GDP to 25 percent and to create 100 million jobs over a decade. EightNational Investment and Manufacturing Zones (NIMZ) have been announced along theDelhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor and nine projects have been approved by the DMIC Trust.Five NIMZs outside DMIC have also been given in-principle approval. Three more corridorsconnecting Chennai and Bengaluru, Bengaluru and Mumbai, and Amritsar and Kolkata areunder different stages of preparatory work. Additional capacities are being installed in majormanufacturing industries such as steel, cement, refinery, power and electronics. Severalmeasures have been taken to promote micro, small and medium enterprises includingnotifying a public procurement policy, establishing technology centres and common facilitycentres, and launching the Khadi mark.Infrastructure12. We have given a big push to infrastructure and capacity addition in infrastructureindustries. In 2012-13 and in the nine months of the current financial year, we have added29,350 megawatts of power capacity, 3,928 kilometres of national highways, 39,144kilometres of rural roads under PMGSY, 3,343 kilometres of new railway track, and 217.5million tonnes of capacity per annum in our ports. Besides, 19 oil and gas blocks were givenout for exploration and 7 new airports are under construction. We have also facilitatedInfrastructure Debt Funds to provide take-out finance for infrastructure projects and ease thepressure on the banking system.Exchange Rate13. Risks to capital flows were accentuated due to volatile global conditions and theindication, in May 2013, of a reduction in asset purchases by the US Federal Reserve. Therupee came under pressure. Government, RBI and SEBI undertook a number of measures tofacilitate capital inflows and stabilise the foreign exchange market. Among emergingeconomy currencies, the rupee was affected least when the actual reduction took place inDecember 2013 and January 2014.GDP Growth   Decline and Rise  14. Hon  ble Members will recall that the slowdown began in 2011-12. In nine quarters,the GDP growth rate declined from 7.5 percent in Q1 of 2011-12 to 4.4 percent in Q1 of2013-14. Thanks to the numerous measures that I have narrated, I was confident that thedecline will be arrested and the growth cycle will turn in the second quarter. I believe I havebeen vindicated. Growth in Q2 of 2013-14 has been placed at 4.8 percent and growth for thewhole year has been estimated at 4.9 percent. This means that growth in Q3 and Q4 of 2013-14 will be at least 5.2 percent.15. I can confidently assert that the economy is more stable today than what it was twoyears ago. The fiscal deficit is declining, the current account deficit has been contained,inflation has moderated, the quarterly growth rate is on the rise, the exchange rate is stable,exports have increased, and hundreds of projects have been unblocked.16. Madam Speaker, all this is the result of hard work. I may add, among other mentors,my mother and Harvard taught me the value of hard work.UPA  s Record of Growth17. Over the last ten years, the UPA Governments have gently nudged India and Indiansinto accepting that growth is an imperative; that it must be made more inclusive andconverted into development; and that the growth model, in order to be sustainable, mustaddress other concerns such as environment, inter-generational equity, indebtedness,ownership and control of resources, financing etc.18. The UPA Governments   record on growth is unparalleled.19. Ten years ago, we produced 213 million tonnes of food grains; today, we produce 263million tonnes of food grains. Ten years ago, the installed power capacity was 112,700 MW;today, it is 234,600 MW. Ten years ago, coal production was 361 million tonnes per year;today, we produce 554 million tonnes per year. Ten years ago, there were 51,511 km of ruralroads under PMGSY; today, we have 389,578 km. Ten years ago, the Central Government  sexpenditure on education was `10,145 crore; this year, we allocated `79,451 crore. Tenyears ago, the Central Government spent `7,248 crore on health; this year, it will spend`36,322 crore. I could multiply the examples, but what I have given will suffice.20. Madam Speaker, I reject the argument of policy paralysis. Just as there are businesscycles, there is a cycle around the trend growth rate of an economy. Over a period of 33years, the trend growth rate in India has been 6.2 percent. Average annual GDP growthduring the period 1999-2004 was 5.9 percent, that is below the trend rate. In the next fiveyear period 2004-2009, it was 8.4 percent and, in the period 2009-2014, going by the CSO  sestimate, it will be 6.6 percent. UPA-I and UPA-II have delivered above the tren  d growthrate.
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