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UT/TT Statewide Poll October 2014

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2014 election polling
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  UT-Austin/Texas Tribune – Texas Statewide Survey, October 2014 Page 1 of 5 University of Texas / Texas Tribune Texas Statewide Survey Field Dates: October 10 to October 19, 2014 N=1200 Adults Margin of error: +/- 2.83% (3.28% adjusted for weighting) unless otherwise noted *   Interest and Engagement Q1. Are you registered to vote in the state of Texas? 1. Yes, registered 100% Q2. Generally speaking, would you say that you are extremely interested in politics and public affairs, somewhat interested, not very interested, or not at all interested? 1. Extremely interested 48% 2. Somewhat interested 41 3. Not very interested 8 4. Not at all interested 3 5. Don’t know 0 Q3. There are many elections in the state of Texas. Furthermore, many people intend to vote in a given election, but sometimes personal and professional circumstances keep them from the polls. Thinking back over the past two or three years, would you say that you voted in all elections, almost all, about half, one or two, or none at all? 1. Every election 37% 2. Almost every election 38 3. About half 9 4. One or two 9 5. None 6 6. Don’t know 1 Q3A. On a 0-10 scale, please rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections: 10 means you are absolutely certain to vote, 0 means you will definitely NOT vote, and 5 means you may or may not vote.  [INSERT 0-10 SCALE AND INCLUDE “Don’t know” option] Mean 9.11; Standard Deviation 0.06 *   In calculating the margin of error (MOE) for the survey, we provide two calculations, one that compensates for the relative standard deviation of the weights and one that does not. Without taking the variance of the weights into account, the margin of error for the full sample is 2.83%. To compensate for the additional uncertainty from weighting, we apply a multiplier derived from the coefficient of variation of the weights: sqrt(1+CV^2), where CV=sd(weights)/mean(weights). For this weight sensitive calculation, the MOE for the full sample is 3.28%.    UT-Austin/Texas Tribune – Texas Statewide Survey, October 2014 Page 2 of 5 Political Figures and Elections   [ For Q14 through Q21, respondents were first asked the questions below. If they initially answered that they didn’t know, they were then asked a follow-up question: “If you had to make a choice, who would you choose?” Responses to the follow-up questions were folded into the results found below. “Likely Voters” were defined as those who indicated that they were either “Extremely” or “Somewhat” interested in politics in Q2 AND either voted in “Every” or “Almost every” election in Q3.] Q14. If the 2014 general election for U.S. Senator from Texas was held today, would you vote for the Republican John Cornyn, the Democrat David M. Alameel, the Libertarian Rebecca Paddock, the Green Party candidate Emily “Spicybrown” Sanchez, of haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-4]    Among likely voters (n=866, MOE is +/-3.33%; 3.60+/-% adjusted for weighting) 1. John Cornyn 57% 2. David M. Alameel 31 3. Rebecca Paddock 7 4. Emily “Spicybrown” Sanchez 5  UT-Austin/Texas Tribune – Texas Statewide Survey, October 2014 Page 3 of 5 Q15. If the 2014 general election for Governor were held today, would you vote for the Democrat Wendy Davis, the Republican Greg Abbott, the Libertarian Kathie Glass, the Green Party candidate Brandon Parmer, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-4]    Among likely voters (n=866, MOE is +/-3.33%; 3.60+/-% adjusted for weighting) 1. Greg Abbott 54% 2. Wendy Davis 38 3. Kathie Glass 6 4. Brandon Parmer 2 Q16. If the 2014 general election for Lieutenant Governor were held today, would you vote for the Democrat Leticia Van de Putte, the Republican Dan Patrick, the Libertarian Robert D. Butler, the Green Party candidate Chandrakantha Courtney, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-4]    Among likely voters (n=866, MOE is +/-3.33%; 3.60+/-% adjusted for weighting) 1. Dan Patrick 52% 2. Leticia Van de Putte 35 3. Robert D. Butler 9 4. Chandrakantha Courtney 4 Q17. If the 2014 general election for Attorney General were held today, would you vote for the Democrat Sam Houston and the Republican Ken Paxton, the Libertarian Jamie Balagia, the Green Party candidate Jamar Osborne, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-4]    Among likely voters (n=866, MOE is +/-3.33%; 3.60+/-% adjusted for weighting) 1. Ken Paxton 54% 2. Sam Houston 34 3. Jamie Balagia 8 4. Jamar Osborne 4 Q18. If the 2014 general election for Comptroller were held today, would you vote for the Democrat Mike Collier and the Republican Glenn Hegar, the Libertarian Ben Sanders, the Green Party candidate Deb Shafto, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-4]    Among likely voters (n=866, MOE is +/-3.33%; 3.60+/-% adjusted for weighting) 1. Glenn Hegar 49% 2. Mike Collier 34 3. Ben Sanders 11 4. Deb Shafto 6  UT-Austin/Texas Tribune – Texas Statewide Survey, October 2014 Page 4 of 5 Q19. If the 2014 general election for Land Commissioner were held today, would you vote for the Democrat John Cook, the Republican George P. Bush, the Libertarian Justin Knight, the Green Party candidate Valerie Alessi, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-4]    Among likely voters (n=866, MOE is +/-3.33%; 3.60+/-% adjusted for weighting) 1. George P. Bush 50% 2. John Cook 32 3. Justin Knight 10 4. Valerie Alessi 7 Q20. If the 2014 general election for the Commissioner of Agriculture were held today, would you vote for the Democrat Jim Hogan and the Republican Sid Miller, the Libertarian David (Rocky) Palmquist, the Green Party candidate Kenneth Kendrick, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-4]    Among likely voters (n=866, MOE is +/-3.33%; 3.60+/-% adjusted for weighting) 1. Sid Miller 47% 2. Jim Hogan 35 3. David (Rocky) Palmquist 9 4. Kenneth Kendrick 9 Q21. If the 2014 general election for the Railroad Commission were held today, would you vote for the Democrat Steve Brown, the Republican Ryan Sitton, the Libertarian Mark A. Miller, the Green Party candidate Martina Salinas, or haven’t you thought about it enough to have an opinion? [RANDOMIZE 1-4]    Among likely voters (n=866, MOE is +/-3.33%; 3.60+/-% adjusted for weighting) 1. Ryan Sitton 48% 2. Steve Brown 34 3. Mark A. Miller 10 4. Martina Salinas 9

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